In our recent webinar, Cart.com President Ilias Simpson joined supply chain, trade and policy experts Tim Manning and Chris Siepmann to explore the challenges brands face under evolving tariff policies, including the impact of Section 321 de minimis changes and a Trump administration’s potential trade agenda. We also welcomed moderator Keith Biondo, the publisher of Inbound Logistics.
Defining the new tariff landscape
The discussion kicked off with a clear breakdown of tariffs as taxes on imports and the role of Section 321 exemptions, which allow shipments under $800 to avoid tariffs. However, the Biden administration’s proposed rule aims to close this loophole, citing national security concerns over illicit goods and fentanyl entering the U.S.
Trump's expidited trade policy and IEEPA
Chris Siepmann and Tim Manning note that a Trump administration could use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on day one without the lengthy investigation process. This shift could include 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and global tariffs on imports, as Trump’s team prioritizes economic rebalancing and national security.
“Keep in mind that the new administration has already signaled a very hawkish approach to China. Trump has signaled this by nominating China hawks like Marco Rubio, Peter Navarro and Jamieson Greer, who was the Chief of Staff for Bob Lighthizer, who was the USTR in the first Trump administration. They're very ideologically aligned,” Chris said.
With Republicans holding control of the House, Senate, Supreme Court, and presidency, there are minimal political barriers to swift policy changes. This applies not only to tariff adjustments — primarily under the executive branch's authority — but also to broader non-tariff trade policy reforms.
"The President elect has signaled that he wants tariffs on day one, and as Tim pointed out, he's also signaled that he's been impatient with the pacing of how long those changes have taken in the past. I think his track record in his first administration shows he's very willing and capable to follow through on campaign promises in this area with respect to trade and tariffs, I expect the same with respect to the 60% China tariffs as well as the 10 to 20% rest of world tariffs,” Chris concluded.
The potential impact on Mexico and other countries
The evolving trade landscape under a potential Trump administration could have significant implications for Mexico and other U.S. trade partners. While Mexico has been a critical hub for U.S. manufacturing, particularly in the auto industry and maquiladoras, its position may face new pressures. Tim Manning emphasized the growing overlap between trade policy and national security concerns, noting, “The threats in the announcements on Mexico are less about trade deficits and more about using tariffs as a driver for domestic action on security issues like immigration.”
Despite the deep integration of U.S.-Mexico supply chains, Manning warned that businesses cannot assume stability. He cautioned against complacency, stating that even strong economic linkages could be disrupted if trade policies take a more punitive turn. Companies relying on Mexico as a nearshoring solution must closely evaluate their exposure and prepare for potential ripple effects across their supply chains. As Manning succinctly put it, “Hope is not a plan.”
Strategic supply chain adjustments
Ilias Simpson emphasized the need for brands to act now. He urged businesses to explore alternatives like shifting inventory to U.S.-based distribution centers or leveraging partners to optimize costs elsewhere in the supply chain. Overreliance on loopholes, Simpson warned, is risky as geopolitical policies become increasingly stringent. He also outlined the necessity for a strong logistics partner. Ilias said, "If your partner isn’t already talking to you about strategies to adjust your supply chain – whether that’s shifting inventory, nearshoring or optimizing costs – they’re already behind the game."
The role of a 3PL partner
The panel highlighted the critical role logistics partners play in helping businesses adapt quickly. A strong 3PL provider offers strategic advice, predictive analytics and flexible fulfillment solutions to offset rising costs and navigate supply chain complexities.
The panel offered strong action items brands could take:
Understand where your suppliers and their suppliers are located, and the potential tariff implications.
Build "geopolitical muscle" in your organization to stay informed on trade policy changes.
Partner with logistics experts who can help navigate the complex trade environment.
Stay up to date on evolving tariff lists and trade developments through reputable sources and advisory networks.
Key takeaway
Businesses must focus on resilience, flexibility and proactive planning to mitigate risk. As the trade landscape evolves, understanding supplier origins, strengthening U.S. logistics and partnering with knowledgeable 3PLs will be key to staying ahead.
To hear the full conversation and explore more strategies for navigating these challenges, watch the webinar on-demand. If you're ready to take action and are interested in learning more about Cart.com's fulfillment network, available space or have more questions about the 321 de minimis rule changes or tariffs, contact our expert team today.
